Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

KT&G Corporation (033780.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$100,646.98 - $154,822.94$125,864.04
Multi-Stage$125,746.08 - $137,358.27$131,444.95
Blended Fair Value$128,654.50
Current Price$133,600.00
Upside-3.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.04%3.83%5,442.737,203.845,343.305,525.895,167.464,686.014,686.014,217.413,973.673,971.55
YoY Growth---24.45%34.82%-3.30%6.94%10.27%0.00%11.11%6.13%0.05%6.25%
Dividend Yield--5.38%7.87%6.37%6.85%6.35%6.27%4.46%4.22%4.08%3.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,143,499.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)602,969.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)540,530.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)228,699.80142,937.3885,762.43
Cash Retained (M)540,530.00540,530.00540,530.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-228,699.80-142,937.38-85,762.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)311,830.20397,592.63454,767.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)107.78107.78107.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,893.203,688.914,219.39
LTM Dividend per Share5,594.425,594.425,594.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,893.203,688.914,219.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend8,487.619,283.339,813.80
WACC / Discount Rate10.11%10.11%10.11%
Growth Rate1.55%2.55%3.55%
Fair Value$100,646.98$125,864.04$154,822.94
Upside / Downside-24.67%-5.79%15.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,143,499.001,172,650.701,202,545.591,233,202.591,264,641.151,296,881.181,335,787.61
Payout Ratio52.73%60.18%67.64%75.09%82.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)602,969.00705,749.72813,379.03926,037.341,043,911.121,167,193.061,235,603.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.11%10.11%10.11%
Growth Rate1.55%2.55%3.55%
Year 1 PV (M)634,681.96640,931.94647,181.93
Year 2 PV (M)657,815.11670,834.47683,981.42
Year 3 PV (M)673,511.17693,604.81714,094.18
Year 4 PV (M)682,787.03710,081.70738,186.64
Year 5 PV (M)686,546.37721,022.30756,869.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,217,633.7710,730,727.2011,264,229.27
Equity Value (M)13,552,975.4014,167,202.4214,804,542.96
Shares Outstanding (M)107.78107.78107.78
Fair Value$125,746.08$131,444.95$137,358.27
Upside / Downside-5.88%-1.61%2.81%

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