Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SmarTone Telecommunications Holdings Limited (0315.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.05 - $8.76$7.37
Multi-Stage$15.41 - $16.98$16.18
Blended Fair Value$11.77
Current Price$4.41
Upside166.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.320.300.300.300.350.340.130.280.42
YoY Growth---100.00%6.44%-0.33%1.35%-15.63%4.09%154.20%-51.97%-33.97%18.22%
Dividend Yield--0.00%8.78%6.19%7.26%6.45%8.47%4.51%1.64%2.71%3.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)949.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)545.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)403.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)189.81118.6371.18
Cash Retained (M)403.05403.05403.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-189.81-118.63-71.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)213.24284.42331.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,107.511,107.511,107.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-4.19%-3.19%-2.19%
Fair Value$6.05$7.37$8.76
Upside / Downside37.21%67.03%98.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)949.03918.73889.40861.01833.52806.91831.12
Payout Ratio57.53%64.02%70.52%77.01%83.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)545.98588.21627.19663.08696.04726.22768.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-4.19%-3.19%-2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)545.78551.48557.17
Year 2 PV (M)539.96551.29562.74
Year 3 PV (M)529.68546.44563.55
Year 4 PV (M)515.90537.78560.34
Year 5 PV (M)499.44526.05553.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,439.1815,208.6216,010.53
Equity Value (M)17,069.9317,921.6618,808.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1,107.511,107.511,107.51
Fair Value$15.41$16.18$16.98
Upside / Downside249.50%266.94%285.09%

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