Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Tomson Group Limited (0258.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.65 - $2.17$1.93
Multi-Stage$3.15 - $3.49$3.32
Blended Fair Value$2.62
Current Price$2.83
Upside-7.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-38.54%-5.27%0.010.020.050.050.100.170.090.090.040.02
YoY Growth---17.58%-65.17%0.00%-50.00%-38.89%90.89%0.78%95.79%172.66%-35.40%
Dividend Yield--0.50%1.11%3.29%2.45%5.34%8.65%3.98%2.58%1.73%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)982.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)906.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.46122.7873.67
Cash Retained (M)906.76906.76906.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.46-122.78-73.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)710.30783.97833.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.272,114.272,114.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate-10.61%-9.61%-8.61%
Fair Value$1.65$1.93$2.17
Upside / Downside-41.53%-31.95%-23.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)982.28887.89802.58725.46655.76592.75610.53
Payout Ratio7.69%24.15%40.61%57.08%73.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.52214.43325.95414.06482.23533.47564.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate-10.61%-9.61%-8.61%
Year 1 PV (M)193.71195.88198.05
Year 2 PV (M)266.00271.99278.04
Year 3 PV (M)305.26315.62326.21
Year 4 PV (M)321.16335.77350.88
Year 5 PV (M)320.96339.31358.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,250.055,550.355,864.24
Equity Value (M)6,657.147,008.927,375.91
Shares Outstanding (M)2,114.272,114.272,114.27
Fair Value$3.15$3.32$3.49
Upside / Downside11.26%17.14%23.27%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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