Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Keck Seng Investments (Hong Kong) Limited (0184.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.98 - $12.96$10.92
Multi-Stage$24.72 - $27.31$25.99
Blended Fair Value$18.45
Current Price$2.26
Upside716.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.46%-3.20%0.130.080.040.000.050.160.160.150.150.15
YoY Growth--62.50%100.00%0.00%-100.00%-70.97%-3.13%6.67%0.00%0.00%-16.67%
Dividend Yield--6.44%4.10%1.74%0.00%1.53%3.41%3.25%2.14%2.68%2.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)441.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)335.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)88.2555.1633.09
Cash Retained (M)335.80335.80335.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-88.25-55.16-33.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)247.55280.64302.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)340.20340.20340.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.820.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.820.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-4.73%-3.73%-2.73%
Fair Value$8.98$10.92$12.96
Upside / Downside297.41%383.13%473.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)441.27424.80408.94393.68378.99364.84375.79
Payout Ratio23.90%37.12%50.34%63.56%76.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.46157.68205.86250.22290.99328.36347.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-4.73%-3.73%-2.73%
Year 1 PV (M)146.83148.37149.92
Year 2 PV (M)178.50182.27186.08
Year 3 PV (M)202.04208.47215.03
Year 4 PV (M)218.79228.12237.74
Year 5 PV (M)229.90242.22255.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,432.657,831.028,246.29
Equity Value (M)8,408.718,840.479,290.12
Shares Outstanding (M)340.20340.20340.20
Fair Value$24.72$25.99$27.31
Upside / Downside993.67%1,049.83%1,108.31%

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