Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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S-1 Corporation (012750.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56,717.96 - $92,003.76$72,554.28
Multi-Stage$61,443.86 - $67,048.63$64,195.18
Blended Fair Value$68,374.73
Current Price$84,100.00
Upside-18.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.55%9.40%2,541.872,354.012,354.012,354.012,354.012,354.012,354.011,177.011,129.931,082.85
YoY Growth--7.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%4.17%4.35%4.58%
Dividend Yield--3.95%3.90%4.26%3.30%2.88%2.94%2.36%1.19%1.26%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180,788.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91,311.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)89,477.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36,157.6922,598.5613,559.13
Cash Retained (M)89,477.0589,477.0589,477.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-36,157.69-22,598.56-13,559.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)53,319.3666,878.5075,917.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.9135.9135.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,484.931,862.552,114.29
LTM Dividend per Share2,543.002,543.002,543.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,484.931,862.552,114.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend4,027.934,405.544,657.29
WACC / Discount Rate10.34%10.34%10.34%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Fair Value$56,717.96$72,554.28$92,003.76
Upside / Downside-32.56%-13.73%9.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180,788.46188,059.01195,621.96203,489.06211,672.53220,185.12226,790.67
Payout Ratio50.51%58.41%66.30%74.20%82.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91,311.41109,837.48129,705.95150,994.84173,786.25198,166.61209,781.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.34%10.34%10.34%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Year 1 PV (M)98,589.5499,546.52100,503.50
Year 2 PV (M)104,501.00106,539.57108,597.83
Year 3 PV (M)109,195.04112,405.78115,678.85
Year 4 PV (M)112,807.12117,251.25121,825.41
Year 5 PV (M)115,460.08121,173.61127,111.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,665,712.051,748,139.671,833,798.59
Equity Value (M)2,206,264.832,305,056.382,407,515.29
Shares Outstanding (M)35.9135.9135.91
Fair Value$61,443.86$64,195.18$67,048.63
Upside / Downside-26.94%-23.67%-20.28%

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