Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Yuexiu Property Company Limited (0123.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.54 - $168.38$157.79
Multi-Stage$27.89 - $30.49$29.17
Blended Fair Value$93.48
Current Price$3.92
Upside2,284.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.74%7.21%0.310.460.440.410.360.360.250.190.140.14
YoY Growth---32.93%4.93%7.98%11.90%2.34%42.40%31.22%37.32%-0.68%-9.55%
Dividend Yield--6.48%8.02%5.54%7.65%5.83%4.65%4.15%3.30%3.07%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,417.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,105.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)311.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)683.47427.17256.30
Cash Retained (M)311.51311.51311.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-683.47-427.17-256.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-371.97-115.6655.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,025.394,025.394,025.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.030.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.770.770.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.030.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.21%6.21%7.21%
Fair Value$72.54$157.79$168.38
Upside / Downside1,750.57%3,925.33%4,195.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,417.373,629.593,854.994,094.394,348.664,618.714,757.27
Payout Ratio90.88%90.71%90.53%90.35%90.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,105.863,292.323,489.963,699.443,921.494,156.844,400.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.21%6.21%7.21%
Year 1 PV (M)3,071.073,100.263,129.45
Year 2 PV (M)3,036.653,094.653,153.19
Year 3 PV (M)3,002.603,089.033,177.11
Year 4 PV (M)2,968.933,083.423,201.20
Year 5 PV (M)2,935.623,077.813,225.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)97,264.36101,975.46106,867.36
Equity Value (M)112,279.22117,420.62122,753.77
Shares Outstanding (M)4,025.394,025.394,025.39
Fair Value$27.89$29.17$30.49
Upside / Downside611.55%644.13%677.93%

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