Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (0081.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.37 - $101.16$94.80
Multi-Stage$16.28 - $17.82$17.03
Blended Fair Value$55.92
Current Price$1.62
Upside3,351.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.56%9.65%0.130.180.170.280.230.150.050.020.000.01
YoY Growth---29.99%10.08%-41.18%23.00%57.51%201.75%203.37%0.00%-100.00%-89.53%
Dividend Yield--7.76%8.10%5.59%8.80%6.60%3.05%2.15%0.45%0.00%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,820.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,108.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)712.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)364.10227.56136.54
Cash Retained (M)712.41712.41712.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-364.10-227.56-136.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)348.31484.84575.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,559.383,559.383,559.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Fair Value$33.37$94.80$101.16
Upside / Downside1,959.99%5,751.62%6,144.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,820.521,928.092,042.012,162.672,290.462,425.802,498.57
Payout Ratio60.87%66.69%72.52%78.35%84.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,108.111,285.921,480.881,694.391,927.962,183.222,311.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Year 1 PV (M)1,199.471,210.911,222.34
Year 2 PV (M)1,288.461,313.141,338.06
Year 3 PV (M)1,375.121,414.821,455.27
Year 4 PV (M)1,459.491,515.941,574.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,541.611,616.501,694.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,077.3953,558.6156,135.34
Equity Value (M)57,941.5360,629.9163,419.28
Shares Outstanding (M)3,559.383,559.383,559.38
Fair Value$16.28$17.03$17.82
Upside / Downside904.85%951.47%999.85%

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