Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Miramar Hotel and Investment Company, Limited (0071.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.04 - $28.24$23.43
Multi-Stage$47.74 - $52.62$50.13
Blended Fair Value$36.78
Current Price$9.52
Upside286.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.77%3.73%0.530.520.470.480.560.610.600.510.450.43
YoY Growth--1.92%10.64%-2.08%-14.29%-8.20%1.67%17.62%13.03%3.89%18.18%
Dividend Yield--5.82%4.91%3.86%3.75%4.31%3.89%3.94%3.27%2.78%3.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,665.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)725.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)940.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.14208.21124.93
Cash Retained (M)940.17940.17940.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.14-208.21-124.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)607.04731.96815.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)690.96690.96690.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.061.18
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.061.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.932.112.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-3.36%-2.36%-1.36%
Fair Value$19.04$23.43$28.24
Upside / Downside99.97%146.13%196.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,665.681,626.291,587.841,550.291,513.631,477.841,522.17
Payout Ratio43.56%52.85%62.13%71.42%80.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)725.51859.41986.581,107.261,221.671,330.061,408.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-3.36%-2.36%-1.36%
Year 1 PV (M)799.26807.53815.80
Year 2 PV (M)853.31871.06888.99
Year 3 PV (M)890.65918.59947.10
Year 4 PV (M)913.90952.32991.94
Year 5 PV (M)925.34974.221,025.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,602.3230,113.1831,687.22
Equity Value (M)32,984.7834,636.8936,356.19
Shares Outstanding (M)690.96690.96690.96
Fair Value$47.74$50.13$52.62
Upside / Downside401.45%426.56%452.70%

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