Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

MTR Corporation Limited (0066.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.85 - $182.68$119.25
Multi-Stage$115.87 - $126.98$121.32
Blended Fair Value$120.29
Current Price$28.20
Upside326.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.63%4.86%1.281.221.381.151.091.070.212.472.980.92
YoY Growth--4.62%-11.29%19.50%5.24%2.39%419.05%-91.66%-17.02%221.99%16.26%
Dividend Yield--4.72%4.09%3.33%2.75%2.53%2.32%0.50%5.39%7.90%2.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,111.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,082.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,029.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,422.203,388.882,033.33
Cash Retained (M)6,029.006,029.006,029.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,422.20-3,388.88-2,033.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)606.802,640.133,995.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,218.006,218.006,218.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.420.64
LTM Dividend per Share3.393.393.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.420.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.493.824.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate2.10%3.10%4.10%
Fair Value$82.85$119.25$182.68
Upside / Downside193.81%322.89%547.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,111.0027,951.2728,817.5829,710.7330,631.5831,580.9632,528.39
Payout Ratio77.76%80.21%82.66%85.10%87.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,082.0022,419.5523,819.7725,285.2426,818.6728,422.8630,088.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate2.10%3.10%4.10%
Year 1 PV (M)20,867.1021,071.4821,275.86
Year 2 PV (M)20,635.1621,041.3621,451.52
Year 3 PV (M)20,387.9120,992.8521,609.65
Year 4 PV (M)20,126.9520,927.1421,750.95
Year 5 PV (M)19,853.8120,845.3221,876.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)618,596.81649,489.93681,605.17
Equity Value (M)720,467.74754,368.09789,569.20
Shares Outstanding (M)6,218.006,218.006,218.00
Fair Value$115.87$121.32$126.98
Upside / Downside310.88%330.21%350.29%

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