Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Samhwa Crown & Closure Co., Ltd (004450.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$94,747.66 - $495,580.56$170,779.28
Multi-Stage$85,916.61 - $94,183.95$89,973.00
Blended Fair Value$130,376.14
Current Price$34,150.00
Upside281.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.69%-0.69%1,203.641,209.841,264.951,264.951,372.271,379.171,384.071,445.281,342.061,290.43
YoY Growth---0.51%-4.36%0.00%-7.82%-0.50%-0.35%-4.24%7.69%4.00%-0.01%
Dividend Yield--4.03%3.78%3.59%2.92%3.58%3.64%3.01%2.68%3.03%3.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,313.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,164.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,149.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,062.74664.21398.53
Cash Retained (M)3,149.303,149.303,149.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,062.74-664.21-398.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,086.562,485.092,750.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.801.801.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,158.131,379.331,526.80
LTM Dividend per Share1,201.331,201.331,201.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,158.131,379.331,526.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend2,359.462,580.662,728.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate3.67%4.67%5.67%
Fair Value$94,747.66$170,779.28$495,580.56
Upside / Downside177.45%400.09%1,351.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,313.695,561.995,821.896,093.946,378.696,676.766,877.06
Payout Ratio40.73%50.59%60.44%70.29%80.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,164.392,813.583,518.724,283.615,112.306,009.086,361.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate3.67%4.67%5.67%
Year 1 PV (M)2,622.672,647.962,673.26
Year 2 PV (M)3,057.393,116.663,176.49
Year 3 PV (M)3,469.453,570.813,674.14
Year 4 PV (M)3,859.674,010.764,166.24
Year 5 PV (M)4,228.894,436.814,652.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)137,554.75144,318.05151,344.81
Equity Value (M)154,792.82162,101.06169,687.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1.801.801.80
Fair Value$85,916.61$89,973.00$94,183.95
Upside / Downside151.59%163.46%175.79%

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