Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shenzhen Capol International & Associatesco., Ltd (002949.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.31 - $35.53$18.16
Multi-Stage$7.87 - $8.57$8.22
Blended Fair Value$13.19
Current Price$15.80
Upside-16.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.15%86.34%0.830.320.320.410.210.290.150.360.150.02
YoY Growth--158.38%0.57%-21.94%93.78%-27.94%96.46%-58.88%150.63%640.02%1,089.71%
Dividend Yield--5.10%2.65%2.19%2.67%1.03%1.72%0.51%2.41%0.96%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.8110.506.30
Cash Retained (M)15.4115.4115.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.81-10.50-6.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.394.919.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)196.04196.04196.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.31$18.16$35.53
Upside / Downside-28.44%14.94%124.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.0389.4995.31101.50108.10115.12118.58
Payout Ratio81.66%83.33%85.00%86.66%88.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.6174.5781.0087.9695.48103.61109.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67.9668.6069.24
Year 2 PV (M)67.2868.5669.85
Year 3 PV (M)66.5868.4970.44
Year 4 PV (M)65.8668.3971.00
Year 5 PV (M)65.1368.2871.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,209.751,268.181,328.84
Equity Value (M)1,542.551,610.501,680.92
Shares Outstanding (M)196.04196.04196.04
Fair Value$7.87$8.22$8.57
Upside / Downside-50.20%-48.01%-45.73%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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