Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Beijing SDL Technology Co.,Ltd. (002658.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.84 - $11.09$7.96
Multi-Stage$5.25 - $5.72$5.48
Blended Fair Value$6.72
Current Price$7.88
Upside-14.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.59%21.16%0.330.460.340.300.120.110.080.070.090.07
YoY Growth---28.17%33.96%13.70%150.29%9.62%37.68%12.15%-24.53%29.96%50.00%
Dividend Yield--4.48%6.46%4.14%4.21%0.89%1.82%0.91%0.65%0.61%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.6126.0115.60
Cash Retained (M)51.5651.5651.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.61-26.01-15.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.9525.5535.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)565.51565.51565.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate4.72%5.72%6.72%
Fair Value$5.84$7.96$11.09
Upside / Downside-25.87%1.00%40.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.05219.94232.51245.80259.85274.70282.94
Payout Ratio75.22%78.17%81.13%84.09%87.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.49171.93188.63206.68226.18247.23261.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate4.72%5.72%6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)154.84156.32157.79
Year 2 PV (M)152.99155.92158.89
Year 3 PV (M)150.96155.32159.77
Year 4 PV (M)148.77154.53160.46
Year 5 PV (M)146.44153.57160.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,217.492,325.412,437.50
Equity Value (M)2,971.483,101.083,235.39
Shares Outstanding (M)565.51565.51565.51
Fair Value$5.25$5.48$5.72
Upside / Downside-33.32%-30.41%-27.40%

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