Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Nanjing Xinlian Electronics Co., Ltd (002546.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.60 - $159.40$149.32
Multi-Stage$77.91 - $85.86$81.81
Blended Fair Value$115.56
Current Price$5.90
Upside1,858.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.10%4.04%0.120.120.120.120.010.120.120.010.090.10
YoY Growth--0.02%0.01%-0.06%764.67%-88.49%-2.09%807.19%-85.37%-2.77%18.16%
Dividend Yield--2.53%2.80%2.93%2.71%0.36%2.92%2.10%0.28%1.28%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)699.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)498.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.8187.3852.43
Cash Retained (M)498.48498.48498.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.81-87.38-52.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)358.67411.10446.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)834.19834.19834.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.78
WACC / Discount Rate2.02%2.02%2.02%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$56.60$149.32$159.40
Upside / Downside859.29%2,430.82%2,601.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)699.03711.77724.73737.94751.38765.07788.02
Payout Ratio28.69%40.95%53.21%65.48%77.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.56291.49385.66483.17584.11688.56728.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.02%2.02%2.02%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)282.92285.73288.53
Year 2 PV (M)363.33370.57377.88
Year 3 PV (M)441.81455.09468.63
Year 4 PV (M)518.41539.29560.79
Year 5 PV (M)593.16623.16654.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,792.4665,968.8869,272.57
Equity Value (M)64,992.0968,242.7271,622.78
Shares Outstanding (M)834.19834.19834.19
Fair Value$77.91$81.81$85.86
Upside / Downside1,220.52%1,286.57%1,355.24%

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