Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co., Ltd. (002507.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.67 - $81.71$35.16
Multi-Stage$13.38 - $14.61$13.98
Blended Fair Value$24.57
Current Price$12.81
Upside91.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.02%27.29%0.300.290.270.230.210.180.100.050.060.02
YoY Growth--2.63%8.57%16.67%12.45%15.38%73.33%125.00%-20.00%226.45%-35.00%
Dividend Yield--2.24%2.17%1.39%0.93%0.64%0.74%0.42%0.31%0.71%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)801.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)484.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)316.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.31100.1960.12
Cash Retained (M)316.90316.90316.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.31-100.19-60.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)156.59216.71256.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,149.061,149.061,149.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.67$35.16$81.71
Upside / Downside61.33%174.46%537.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)801.55853.65909.13968.231,031.161,098.191,131.13
Payout Ratio60.46%66.37%72.28%78.19%84.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)484.65566.57657.11757.01867.13988.371,046.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.35%8.35%8.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)518.01522.92527.83
Year 2 PV (M)549.28559.74570.30
Year 3 PV (M)578.55595.16612.08
Year 4 PV (M)605.90629.20653.17
Year 5 PV (M)631.41661.91693.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,496.3713,099.9513,726.63
Equity Value (M)15,379.5116,068.8716,783.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1,149.061,149.061,149.06
Fair Value$13.38$13.98$14.61
Upside / Downside4.48%9.17%14.02%

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