Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.,Ltd. (002430.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.57 - $202.81$77.17
Multi-Stage$21.87 - $23.90$22.87
Blended Fair Value$50.02
Current Price$24.36
Upside105.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.34%36.67%0.961.000.600.240.180.180.070.160.030.02
YoY Growth---3.98%66.84%144.70%38.89%0.00%140.00%-54.36%535.27%49.98%-60.00%
Dividend Yield--4.65%3.27%1.80%0.85%0.59%1.50%0.58%1.20%0.24%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,004.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)423.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)580.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)200.87125.5475.33
Cash Retained (M)580.44580.44580.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-200.87-125.54-75.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)379.57454.89505.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)984.87984.87984.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.57$77.17$202.81
Upside / Downside58.33%216.77%732.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,004.351,069.631,139.161,213.201,292.061,376.051,417.33
Payout Ratio42.21%51.77%61.32%70.88%80.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)423.91553.71698.59859.961,039.361,238.441,311.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)509.14513.97518.80
Year 2 PV (M)590.66601.91613.27
Year 3 PV (M)668.59687.78707.33
Year 4 PV (M)743.03771.60800.99
Year 5 PV (M)814.10853.42894.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,214.3419,094.1020,007.53
Equity Value (M)21,539.8622,522.7823,542.17
Shares Outstanding (M)984.87984.87984.87
Fair Value$21.87$22.87$23.90
Upside / Downside-10.22%-6.12%-1.87%

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