Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Guanghua Technology Co., Ltd. (001333.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.60 - $83.02$42.65
Multi-Stage$17.78 - $19.42$18.58
Blended Fair Value$30.61
Current Price$24.37
Upside25.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS11.66%0.00%0.420.500.120.080.100.240.070.070.000.00
YoY Growth---15.46%328.92%54.97%-21.92%-60.44%237.33%1.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.60%2.74%0.41%0.19%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.9016.189.71
Cash Retained (M)75.6575.6575.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.90-16.18-9.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.7659.4765.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)127.85127.85127.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.470.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.470.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.60$42.65$83.02
Upside / Downside9.16%74.99%240.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.48137.89146.86156.40166.57177.40182.72
Payout Ratio41.57%51.26%60.94%70.63%80.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.8370.6889.50110.47133.78159.66169.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)64.4165.0265.63
Year 2 PV (M)74.3175.7377.16
Year 3 PV (M)83.5885.9888.42
Year 4 PV (M)92.2395.7899.43
Year 5 PV (M)100.30105.14110.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,858.501,948.272,041.47
Equity Value (M)2,273.332,375.912,482.27
Shares Outstanding (M)127.85127.85127.85
Fair Value$17.78$18.58$19.42
Upside / Downside-27.04%-23.74%-20.33%

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