Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hang Seng Bank Limited (0011.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.19 - $223.03$182.87
Multi-Stage$314.33 - $345.12$329.43
Blended Fair Value$256.15
Current Price$117.60
Upside117.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.83%2.08%6.825.343.936.156.767.877.066.458.775.65
YoY Growth--27.53%35.92%-36.07%-8.95%-14.12%11.45%9.37%-26.44%55.36%1.82%
Dividend Yield--7.13%5.87%3.03%4.31%5.05%4.89%4.02%3.33%6.08%3.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,155.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26,194.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,961.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,431.004,019.382,411.63
Cash Retained (M)5,961.005,961.005,961.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,431.00-4,019.38-2,411.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-470.001,941.633,549.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,895.801,895.801,895.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.251.021.87
LTM Dividend per Share13.8213.8213.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.251.021.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.5714.8415.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$147.19$182.87$223.03
Upside / Downside25.16%55.50%89.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,155.0031,833.4531,515.1231,199.9630,887.9630,579.0931,496.46
Payout Ratio81.46%83.17%84.88%86.58%88.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26,194.0026,475.6726,749.0927,014.3927,271.7027,521.1829,134.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)24,485.7924,735.6524,985.50
Year 2 PV (M)22,879.3423,348.6423,822.72
Year 3 PV (M)21,369.6222,030.4922,704.85
Year 4 PV (M)19,951.7620,778.6721,631.02
Year 5 PV (M)18,621.0119,590.6520,600.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)488,600.78514,043.36540,534.95
Equity Value (M)595,908.31624,527.47654,279.31
Shares Outstanding (M)1,895.801,895.801,895.80
Fair Value$314.33$329.43$345.12
Upside / Downside167.29%180.12%193.47%

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