Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.,Ltd. (000895.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.64 - $31.93$24.39
Multi-Stage$29.74 - $32.63$31.16
Blended Fair Value$27.77
Current Price$24.74
Upside12.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.01%4.31%1.411.811.941.721.620.561.451.162.050.91
YoY Growth---22.45%-6.67%12.93%5.99%187.35%-61.00%24.57%-43.25%126.36%-1.87%
Dividend Yield--5.21%6.79%7.49%5.92%3.96%1.44%5.51%4.54%9.08%4.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,143.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,700.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,443.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,028.66642.91385.75
Cash Retained (M)2,443.072,443.072,443.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,028.66-642.91-385.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,414.411,800.162,057.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,464.663,464.663,464.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.520.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.520.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Fair Value$18.64$24.39$31.93
Upside / Downside-24.66%-1.41%29.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,143.285,231.335,320.895,411.985,504.635,598.865,766.83
Payout Ratio52.50%60.00%67.50%75.00%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,700.213,138.793,591.594,058.984,541.325,038.985,334.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate0.71%1.71%2.71%
Year 1 PV (M)2,901.122,929.922,958.73
Year 2 PV (M)3,068.273,129.503,191.34
Year 3 PV (M)3,204.993,301.413,399.74
Year 4 PV (M)3,314.323,447.923,585.53
Year 5 PV (M)3,399.053,571.193,750.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)87,151.8091,565.3796,155.97
Equity Value (M)103,039.54107,945.32113,041.54
Shares Outstanding (M)3,464.663,464.663,464.66
Fair Value$29.74$31.16$32.63
Upside / Downside20.21%25.93%31.88%

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