Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. (000858.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.08 - $297.89$198.14
Multi-Stage$103.52 - $112.95$108.15
Blended Fair Value$153.14
Current Price$121.48
Upside26.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.40%21.17%4.673.783.022.582.201.701.300.880.780.59
YoY Growth--23.48%25.11%17.17%17.27%29.41%30.77%47.70%12.50%33.33%-14.29%
Dividend Yield--3.56%2.40%1.53%1.66%0.82%1.48%1.35%1.33%1.82%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,433.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,999.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,434.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,686.733,554.212,132.52
Cash Retained (M)18,434.6418,434.6418,434.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,686.73-3,554.21-2,132.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,747.9114,880.4416,302.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,881.653,881.653,881.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.283.834.20
LTM Dividend per Share2.582.582.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.283.834.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.866.416.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$139.08$198.14$297.89
Upside / Downside14.49%63.10%145.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,433.6730,281.8532,250.1834,346.4436,578.9638,956.5940,125.28
Payout Ratio35.17%46.13%57.10%68.07%79.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,999.0213,969.9018,414.7523,378.4028,909.5335,060.9337,115.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12,586.9412,706.2412,825.55
Year 2 PV (M)14,949.2415,233.9815,521.41
Year 3 PV (M)17,099.9517,590.8318,091.02
Year 4 PV (M)19,052.3219,785.0220,538.65
Year 5 PV (M)20,818.8621,824.4222,868.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)317,329.70332,656.84348,570.59
Equity Value (M)401,837.01419,797.34438,415.68
Shares Outstanding (M)3,881.653,881.653,881.65
Fair Value$103.52$108.15$112.95
Upside / Downside-14.78%-10.97%-7.03%

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