Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

GF Securities Co., Ltd. (000776.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.81 - $66.93$45.03
Multi-Stage$43.79 - $48.01$45.86
Blended Fair Value$45.44
Current Price$22.28
Upside103.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.05%5.85%0.550.471.261.050.930.790.980.901.430.52
YoY Growth--17.41%-62.84%19.90%12.14%18.29%-19.76%9.83%-37.29%174.93%67.53%
Dividend Yield--3.40%3.47%7.96%5.96%5.96%5.77%6.01%5.44%8.36%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,806.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,324.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,481.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,761.331,725.831,035.50
Cash Retained (M)5,481.755,481.755,481.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,761.33-1,725.83-1,035.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,720.413,755.914,446.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,793.177,793.177,793.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.071.071.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.551.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Fair Value$31.81$45.03$66.93
Upside / Downside42.75%102.11%200.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,806.6714,227.5914,661.3315,108.3015,568.9016,043.5316,524.84
Payout Ratio60.30%66.24%72.18%78.12%84.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,324.939,423.9410,582.2311,802.3913,087.1014,439.1815,285.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)8,755.008,840.798,926.59
Year 2 PV (M)9,133.239,313.119,494.74
Year 3 PV (M)9,463.269,744.1910,030.63
Year 4 PV (M)9,748.5010,136.2710,535.49
Year 5 PV (M)9,992.1910,491.4611,010.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)294,146.88308,844.21324,123.25
Equity Value (M)341,239.06357,370.03374,121.18
Shares Outstanding (M)7,793.177,793.177,793.17
Fair Value$43.79$45.86$48.01
Upside / Downside96.53%105.82%115.47%

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