Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guoyuan Securities Company Limited (000728.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$105.04 - $123.76$115.98
Multi-Stage$28.85 - $31.61$30.20
Blended Fair Value$73.09
Current Price$9.13
Upside700.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.43%14.44%0.390.380.390.370.300.380.330.360.330.13
YoY Growth--2.42%-4.08%5.52%26.03%-21.82%15.03%-7.91%8.95%155.43%27.98%
Dividend Yield--4.99%5.68%5.84%5.23%3.85%5.13%3.50%4.40%2.71%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,689.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,411.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,277.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)537.85336.16201.69
Cash Retained (M)1,277.521,277.521,277.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-537.85-336.16-201.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)739.67941.361,075.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,321.574,321.574,321.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.220.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.220.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.58
WACC / Discount Rate5.26%5.26%5.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$105.04$115.98$123.76
Upside / Downside1,050.51%1,170.30%1,255.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,689.252,864.053,050.213,248.473,459.633,684.503,795.04
Payout Ratio52.50%60.00%67.50%75.00%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,411.731,718.322,058.812,436.302,854.163,316.053,510.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.26%5.26%5.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,617.091,632.421,647.74
Year 2 PV (M)1,823.371,858.101,893.15
Year 3 PV (M)2,030.562,088.852,148.25
Year 4 PV (M)2,238.692,324.782,413.33
Year 5 PV (M)2,447.742,565.972,688.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)114,524.22120,055.79125,799.05
Equity Value (M)124,681.67130,525.90136,590.25
Shares Outstanding (M)4,321.574,321.574,321.57
Fair Value$28.85$30.20$31.61
Upside / Downside216.00%230.81%246.18%

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