Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhongshan Public Utilities Group Co.,Ltd. (000685.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.76 - $189.40$177.50
Multi-Stage$48.27 - $52.89$50.54
Blended Fair Value$114.02
Current Price$12.37
Upside821.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.99%11.77%0.370.380.420.400.370.240.300.300.400.24
YoY Growth---2.29%-9.20%5.31%7.58%53.01%-19.37%0.38%-23.81%63.91%95.66%
Dividend Yield--4.23%4.96%5.99%4.98%4.24%3.23%3.40%3.00%3.64%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,388.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)723.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)664.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)277.65173.53104.12
Cash Retained (M)664.82664.82664.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-277.65-173.53-104.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)387.17491.29560.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,457.671,457.671,457.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.340.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.340.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate5.07%5.07%5.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$160.76$177.50$189.40
Upside / Downside1,199.61%1,334.92%1,431.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,388.261,478.501,574.601,676.951,785.951,902.041,959.10
Payout Ratio52.11%59.69%67.27%74.84%82.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)723.44882.501,059.181,255.111,472.021,711.841,812.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.07%5.07%5.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)832.00839.89847.78
Year 2 PV (M)941.44959.37977.47
Year 3 PV (M)1,051.741,081.941,112.70
Year 4 PV (M)1,162.931,207.651,253.66
Year 5 PV (M)1,275.001,336.591,400.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,096.2768,240.4471,504.95
Equity Value (M)70,359.3973,665.8877,097.08
Shares Outstanding (M)1,457.671,457.671,457.67
Fair Value$48.27$50.54$52.89
Upside / Downside290.20%308.54%327.57%

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