Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Northeast Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (000597.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.02 - $7.55$5.45
Multi-Stage$4.04 - $4.42$4.23
Blended Fair Value$4.84
Current Price$5.33
Upside-9.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.74%0.32%0.140.150.080.110.090.090.120.110.110.13
YoY Growth---6.21%100.79%-33.87%32.46%-7.84%-18.59%4.57%1.82%-15.09%-7.72%
Dividend Yield--2.83%3.15%1.28%1.80%1.89%1.88%1.91%2.42%1.85%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)374.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)171.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.9246.8228.09
Cash Retained (M)171.71171.71171.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.92-46.82-28.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.79124.88143.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,440.481,440.481,440.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.01%9.01%9.01%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$4.02$5.45$7.55
Upside / Downside-24.61%2.33%41.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)374.58391.97410.17429.21449.14469.99484.09
Payout Ratio54.16%61.33%68.50%75.66%82.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.88240.39280.95324.76372.03422.99447.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.01%9.01%9.01%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)218.42220.53222.63
Year 2 PV (M)231.94236.44240.98
Year 3 PV (M)243.60250.72257.98
Year 4 PV (M)253.55263.48273.70
Year 5 PV (M)261.93274.81288.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,615.234,842.225,078.05
Equity Value (M)5,824.676,088.196,361.53
Shares Outstanding (M)1,440.481,440.481,440.48
Fair Value$4.04$4.23$4.42
Upside / Downside-24.14%-20.70%-17.14%

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