Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Palma Serasih Tbk (PSGO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$185.20 - $282.76$230.86
Multi-Stage$393.72 - $433.34$413.14
Blended Fair Value$322.00
Current Price$220.00
Upside46.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%8.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)391,880.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150,800.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)241,080.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78,376.0648,985.0429,391.02
Cash Retained (M)241,080.27241,080.27241,080.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-78,376.06-48,985.04-29,391.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)162,704.20192,095.23211,689.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18,850.0018,850.0018,850.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.6310.1911.23
LTM Dividend per Share8.008.008.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.6310.1911.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.6318.1919.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$185.20$230.86$282.76
Upside / Downside-15.82%4.94%28.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)391,880.32387,961.51384,081.90380,241.08376,438.67372,674.28383,854.51
Payout Ratio38.48%48.78%59.09%69.39%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150,800.05189,266.71226,948.96263,858.64300,007.43335,406.85355,065.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)175,424.65177,214.70179,004.74
Year 2 PV (M)194,966.93198,966.14203,005.96
Year 3 PV (M)210,097.28216,594.68223,224.68
Year 4 PV (M)221,410.14230,586.55240,045.29
Year 5 PV (M)229,431.90241,378.95253,818.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,390,210.336,722,963.407,069,436.12
Equity Value (M)7,421,541.227,787,704.438,168,535.38
Shares Outstanding (M)18,850.0018,850.0018,850.00
Fair Value$393.72$413.14$433.34
Upside / Downside78.96%87.79%96.97%

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