Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Periods / Units / Analysis

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.13 - $65.74$46.77
Multi-Stage$51.13 - $56.00$53.52
Blended Fair Value$50.14
Current Price$11.82
Upside324.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.73%16.68%2.843.055.852.030.210.290.100.000.000.00
YoY Growth---6.83%-47.83%188.28%856.69%-27.17%200.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--21.81%20.50%63.04%14.52%2.48%5.40%0.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,955.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,074.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,881.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,791.001,744.381,046.63
Cash Retained (M)1,881.001,881.001,881.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,791.00-1,744.38-1,046.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-910.00136.63834.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,444.376,444.376,444.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.020.13
LTM Dividend per Share1.871.871.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.020.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.731.892.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Fair Value$34.13$46.77$65.74
Upside / Downside188.77%295.68%456.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,955.0014,318.2114,690.8715,073.2415,465.5515,868.0716,344.12
Payout Ratio86.52%87.22%87.91%88.61%89.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,074.0012,487.8812,915.1213,356.1513,811.3814,281.2715,118.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Year 1 PV (M)11,583.2111,697.2111,811.21
Year 2 PV (M)11,111.6511,331.4611,553.41
Year 3 PV (M)10,658.6310,976.4511,300.53
Year 4 PV (M)10,223.4510,631.9211,052.50
Year 5 PV (M)9,805.4410,297.5710,809.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)276,106.29289,963.94304,372.50
Equity Value (M)329,488.66344,898.54360,899.42
Shares Outstanding (M)6,444.376,444.376,444.37
Fair Value$51.13$53.52$56.00
Upside / Downside332.56%352.79%373.79%

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