Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Kino Indonesia Tbk (KINO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$563.13 - $781.36$672.56
Multi-Stage$1,170.70 - $1,287.41$1,227.90
Blended Fair Value$950.23
Current Price$1,195.00
Upside-20.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.38%-3.07%22.730.7310.0024.87106.7259.0627.9725.9038.340.00
YoY Growth--2,996.34%-92.66%-59.78%-76.70%80.70%111.11%8.00%-32.43%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.05%0.05%0.66%0.73%5.16%2.94%1.10%1.31%1.53%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137,117.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77,453.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)59,664.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27,423.5317,139.7110,283.82
Cash Retained (M)59,664.0659,664.0659,664.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-27,423.53-17,139.71-10,283.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)32,240.5342,524.3549,380.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,378.821,378.821,378.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.3830.8435.81
LTM Dividend per Share56.1756.1756.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.3830.8435.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend79.5687.0291.99
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate-5.07%-4.07%-3.07%
Fair Value$563.13$672.56$781.36
Upside / Downside-52.88%-43.72%-34.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137,117.67131,538.15126,185.68121,051.01116,125.28111,399.97114,741.97
Payout Ratio56.49%63.19%69.89%76.59%83.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77,453.6083,118.3988,193.9292,718.7696,729.33100,259.98106,136.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.34%8.34%8.34%
Growth Rate-5.07%-4.07%-3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)75,918.6376,718.3677,518.08
Year 2 PV (M)73,576.8475,135.1276,709.72
Year 3 PV (M)70,651.4972,907.8275,211.68
Year 4 PV (M)67,322.9470,204.8073,178.20
Year 5 PV (M)63,735.8567,164.2870,738.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,262,979.071,330,916.371,401,746.26
Equity Value (M)1,614,184.821,693,046.741,775,102.63
Shares Outstanding (M)1,378.821,378.821,378.82
Fair Value$1,170.70$1,227.90$1,287.41
Upside / Downside-2.03%2.75%7.73%

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