Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

European Wax Center, Inc. (EWCZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.90 - $4.79$3.74
Multi-Stage$9.26 - $10.23$9.74
Blended Fair Value$6.74
Current Price$5.80
Upside16.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-31.40%0.00%0.020.074.730.000.000.120.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---72.31%-98.61%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.48%24.89%0.00%0.00%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.251.400.84
Cash Retained (M)11.2011.2011.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.25-1.40-0.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.959.7910.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.4043.4043.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate5.00%5.00%5.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.90$3.74$4.79
Upside / Downside-50.03%-35.59%-17.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.2411.1211.0110.9010.7910.6911.01
Payout Ratio0.37%18.30%36.22%54.15%72.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.042.043.995.907.789.6210.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.00%5.00%5.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1.921.941.96
Year 2 PV (M)3.553.623.69
Year 3 PV (M)4.955.105.26
Year 4 PV (M)6.146.406.66
Year 5 PV (M)7.167.537.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)378.29397.98418.49
Equity Value (M)402.00422.57443.99
Shares Outstanding (M)43.4043.4043.40
Fair Value$9.26$9.74$10.23
Upside / Downside59.71%67.89%76.39%

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