DDM Analysis: CNQ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$174.20 - $630.39	$551.36
Multi-Stage	$82.13 - $89.73	$85.86
Blended Fair Value	$318.61
Current Price	$44.49
Upside	616.15%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.50%	16.58%	2.11	1.85	2.35	0.82	0.93	0.83	0.74	0.60	0.36	0.60
YoY Growth	-	-	13.83%	-21.01%	187.13%	-12.02%	11.88%	11.59%	24.76%	65.17%	-39.41%	30.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.76%	3.56%	6.27%	2.11%	4.79%	8.71%	3.99%	3.01%	1.65%	3.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,331.00	831.88	499.13
Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00	1,900.00	1,900.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,331.00	-831.88	-499.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	569.00	1,068.13	1,400.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
LTM Dividend per Share	2.26	2.26	2.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.54	2.77	2.93
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$174.20	$551.36	$630.39
Upside / Downside	291.55%	1,139.29%	1,316.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6,655.00	7,087.58	7,548.27	8,038.90	8,561.43	9,117.93	9,391.46
Payout Ratio	71.45%	75.16%	78.87%	82.58%	86.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,755.00	5,327.02	5,953.32	6,638.53	7,387.66	8,206.13	8,687.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.04%	7.04%	7.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,930.13	4,976.86	5,023.60
Year 2 PV (M)	5,099.26	5,196.39	5,294.43
Year 3 PV (M)	5,262.52	5,413.59	5,567.52
Year 4 PV (M)	5,420.05	5,628.49	5,842.88
Year 5 PV (M)	5,571.97	5,841.10	6,120.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)	146,158.13	153,217.63	160,547.30
Equity Value (M)	172,442.08	180,274.06	188,396.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
Fair Value	$82.13	$85.86	$89.73
Upside / Downside	84.61%	93.00%	101.69%

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Ticker ⇵	Company ⇵	Dividend Yield % ▼	Dividend Per Share ⇵	Payout Ratio % ⇵
603060.SS	China Testing & Certification International Group Co.,Ltd.	2.34%	$0.14	65.87%
603527.SS	Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd.	2.34%	$0.26	60.72%
6239.T	Nagaoka International Corporation	2.34%	$33.90	30.69%
7277.KL	Dialog Group Berhad	2.34%	$0.04	78.99%
7708.TWO	Family International Gourmet Co. Ltd.	2.34%	$2.24	40.19%
7947.T	FP Corporation	2.34%	$61.47	35.92%
7966.T	LINTEC Corporation	2.34%	$103.34	53.86%
ENGI11.SA	Energisa S.A.	2.34%	$1.10	76.21%
IHG.L	InterContinental Hotels Group PLC	2.34%	$3.28	37.32%
JR.BK	J.R.W. Utility Public Company Limited	2.34%	$0.04	36.34%
SMRA.JK	PT Summarecon Agung Tbk	2.34%	$8.99	15.00%
002056.SZ	Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics Co. ,Ltd	2.33%	$0.45	30.92%
002538.SZ	Anhui Sierte Fertilizer industry Ltd. ,company	2.33%	$0.15	57.55%
0QMR.L	BELIMO Holding AG	2.33%	$17.99	69.21%
1322.SR	Al Masane Al Kobra Mining Company	2.33%	$2.08	73.41%
300743.SZ	Hangzhou Todaytec Digital Co., Ltd	2.33%	$0.52	71.84%
601566.SS	Joeone Co., Ltd.	2.33%	$0.31	50.03%
605319.SS	Wuxi Zhenhua Auto Parts Co., Ltd.	2.33%	$0.49	37.82%
GIMB.BR	Gimv N.V.	2.33%	$1.02	9.10%
MOSHI.BK	Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation Public Company Limited	2.33%	$0.81	43.67%
002939.SZ	China Great Wall Securities Co.,Ltd.	2.32%	$0.24	39.54%
004360.KS	Sebang Co., Ltd	2.32%	$325.95	11.33%
1283.HK	Accel Group Holdings Limited	2.32%	$0.04	37.03%
2301.T	Gakujo Co., Ltd.	2.32%	$40.61	28.97%
4887.T	Sawai Group Holdings Co., Ltd.	2.32%	$54.74	64.15%
600079.SS	Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.,Ltd.	2.32%	$0.42	48.02%
600299.SS	Bluestar Adisseo Company	2.32%	$0.21	46.81%
605158.SS	Zhejiang Huada New Materials Co., Ltd.	2.32%	$0.19	57.15%
7287.T	Nippon Seiki Co., Ltd.	2.32%	$50.60	31.92%
7914.T	Kyodo Printing Co., Ltd.	2.32%	$36.67	27.27%
AZZA3.SA	Azzas 2154 S.A.	2.32%	$0.59	15.77%
HUFV-A.ST	Hufvudstaden AB (publ)	2.32%	$2.82	51.40%
002043.SZ	DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co.,Ltd	2.31%	$0.33	37.20%
1214.SR	Al Hassan Ghazi Ibrahim Shaker Company	2.31%	$0.50	34.65%
300832.SZ	Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co., Ltd.	2.31%	$1.30	61.96%
600233.SS	YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd.	2.31%	$0.38	32.72%
6277.T	Hosokawa Micron Corporation	2.31%	$130.24	42.63%
6728.T	ULVAC, Inc.	2.31%	$163.69	55.14%
9251.T	AB&Company Co.,Ltd.	2.31%	$27.86	39.35%
9783.T	Benesse Holdings, Inc.	2.31%	$59.98	89.83%
ALLEC.PA	Cogelec S.A.	2.31%	$0.67	46.99%
ELIT.JK	PT Data Sinergitama Jaya Tbk	2.31%	$5.00	34.02%
LUXF.BK	Luxury Real Estate Investment Fund	2.31%	$0.21	14.86%
STEC-R.BK	Sino-Thai Engineering and Construction Public Company Limited	2.31%	$0.15	95.24%
000513.SZ	Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc.	2.30%	$0.79	32.65%
000959.SZ	Beijing Shougang Co., Ltd.	2.30%	$0.11	71.65%
002941.SZ	Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co., Ltd.	2.30%	$0.36	43.85%
2838.TW	Union Bank of Taiwan	2.30%	$0.45	36.18%
2947.TWO	Zhen Yu Hardware Co., Ltd.	2.30%	$1.90	56.70%
2HRA.DE	H&R GmbH & Co. KGaA	2.30%	$0.10	45.84%

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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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