Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

B2Gold Corp. (BTG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.20 - $7.50$4.70
Multi-Stage$2.37 - $2.58$2.47
Blended Fair Value$3.59
Current Price$4.95
Upside-27.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS77.41%0.00%0.130.130.110.120.080.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---2.90%16.03%-1.81%37.52%1,055.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.51%5.02%2.90%2.53%1.96%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)219.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.8527.4016.44
Cash Retained (M)95.5195.5195.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.85-27.40-16.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.6768.1179.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,435.641,435.641,435.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.20$4.70$7.50
Upside / Downside-35.32%-4.97%51.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)219.23233.48248.65264.82282.03300.36309.37
Payout Ratio56.43%63.15%69.86%76.57%83.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.71147.43173.71202.78234.89270.33286.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)133.35134.61135.87
Year 2 PV (M)142.10144.81147.54
Year 3 PV (M)150.03154.34158.73
Year 4 PV (M)157.19163.24169.45
Year 5 PV (M)163.62171.52179.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,654.442,782.652,915.77
Equity Value (M)3,400.733,551.173,707.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,435.641,435.641,435.64
Fair Value$2.37$2.47$2.58
Upside / Downside-52.15%-50.03%-47.83%

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