Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. (7282.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,716.75 - $24,488.81$13,562.11
Multi-Stage$7,463.03 - $8,171.35$7,810.64
Blended Fair Value$10,686.38
Current Price$3,682.00
Upside190.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.85%6.11%106.8869.2655.9971.3355.9661.0759.0056.9953.9456.99
YoY Growth--54.31%23.71%-21.51%27.46%-8.36%3.51%3.52%5.66%-5.35%-3.46%
Dividend Yield--3.76%2.42%2.06%3.33%2.05%2.72%2.74%2.03%2.01%3.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45,852.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,346.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,506.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,170.405,731.503,438.90
Cash Retained (M)32,506.0032,506.0032,506.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,170.40-5,731.50-3,438.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)23,335.6026,774.5029,067.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)127.17127.17127.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share183.49210.53228.56
LTM Dividend per Share104.94104.94104.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share183.49210.53228.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend288.44315.48333.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Fair Value$8,716.75$13,562.11$24,488.81
Upside / Downside136.74%268.34%565.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45,852.0048,197.2350,662.4253,253.6955,977.5158,840.6460,605.86
Payout Ratio29.11%41.29%53.46%65.64%77.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,346.0019,898.4027,086.1634,957.1543,562.4552,956.5756,060.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.56%7.56%7.56%
Growth Rate4.11%5.11%6.11%
Year 1 PV (M)18,323.8318,499.8318,675.82
Year 2 PV (M)22,969.0923,412.4323,860.02
Year 3 PV (M)27,297.9728,092.1228,901.53
Year 4 PV (M)31,325.9832,546.9533,803.27
Year 5 PV (M)35,067.9636,784.7238,568.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)814,122.03853,977.65895,379.13
Equity Value (M)949,106.86993,313.711,039,187.84
Shares Outstanding (M)127.17127.17127.17
Fair Value$7,463.03$7,810.64$8,171.35
Upside / Downside102.69%112.13%121.93%

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