Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Willfar Information Technology Co., Ltd. (688100.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.14 - $12.94$11.01
Multi-Stage$14.02 - $15.37$14.68
Blended Fair Value$12.85
Current Price$37.60
Upside-65.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.430.330.270.230.180.000.000.400.320.00
YoY Growth--30.17%24.94%15.56%28.57%0.00%0.00%-100.00%25.13%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.96%0.88%1.10%0.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)682.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)254.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)427.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.4885.3051.18
Cash Retained (M)427.60427.60427.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.48-85.30-51.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)291.12342.30376.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)488.13488.13488.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.700.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.700.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.14$11.01$12.94
Upside / Downside-75.70%-70.71%-65.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)682.38675.56668.80662.12655.49648.94668.41
Payout Ratio37.34%47.87%58.40%68.93%79.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)254.78323.39390.60456.43520.91584.05618.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)291.03294.00296.97
Year 2 PV (M)316.34322.83329.39
Year 3 PV (M)332.67342.96353.46
Year 4 PV (M)341.68355.84370.43
Year 5 PV (M)344.76362.71381.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,216.725,488.375,771.22
Equity Value (M)6,843.207,166.717,502.87
Shares Outstanding (M)488.13488.13488.13
Fair Value$14.02$14.68$15.37
Upside / Downside-62.71%-60.95%-59.12%

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