Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xinjiang Hongtong Natural Gas Co., Ltd. (605169.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.42 - $3.44$2.92
Multi-Stage$4.10 - $4.48$4.29
Blended Fair Value$3.61
Current Price$14.05
Upside-74.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-16.19%0.00%0.230.200.410.370.020.560.260.610.010.00
YoY Growth--13.36%-50.63%11.51%1,675.75%-96.27%111.95%-56.72%3,973.84%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.33%2.25%3.72%3.11%0.14%3.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.1212.587.55
Cash Retained (M)9.009.009.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.12-12.58-7.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.13-3.581.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)279.15279.15279.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.69%9.69%9.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.42$2.92$3.44
Upside / Downside-82.79%-79.20%-75.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.6299.6198.6297.6396.6695.6998.56
Payout Ratio91.06%90.85%90.64%90.42%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.6290.5089.3888.2887.1986.1291.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.69%9.69%9.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)81.6782.5183.34
Year 2 PV (M)72.8074.2975.80
Year 3 PV (M)64.8966.9068.95
Year 4 PV (M)57.8460.2462.71
Year 5 PV (M)51.5654.2457.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)816.43858.95903.21
Equity Value (M)1,145.201,197.131,251.05
Shares Outstanding (M)279.15279.15279.15
Fair Value$4.10$4.29$4.48
Upside / Downside-70.80%-69.48%-68.10%

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