Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Master Logistics Co., Ltd. (603967.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.43 - $9.51$7.90
Multi-Stage$6.24 - $6.74$6.49
Blended Fair Value$7.20
Current Price$11.13
Upside-35.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.80%7.93%0.550.480.410.300.290.300.240.240.390.25
YoY Growth--13.19%16.56%40.35%1.93%-3.27%22.55%-0.01%-37.85%57.97%-2.38%
Dividend Yield--5.15%5.11%4.21%3.02%2.92%2.78%1.44%1.44%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)258.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)219.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.7632.3519.41
Cash Retained (M)39.5239.5239.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.76-32.35-19.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-12.257.1720.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)346.18346.18346.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.020.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.020.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.43$7.90$9.51
Upside / Downside-42.23%-28.98%-14.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)258.81275.63293.55312.63332.95354.59365.23
Payout Ratio84.73%85.79%86.84%87.89%88.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)219.29236.45254.92274.78296.15319.13337.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)203.13205.05206.98
Year 2 PV (M)188.12191.70195.32
Year 3 PV (M)174.20179.20184.29
Year 4 PV (M)161.28167.49173.87
Year 5 PV (M)149.30156.52164.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,283.531,345.521,409.89
Equity Value (M)2,159.562,245.482,334.35
Shares Outstanding (M)346.18346.18346.18
Fair Value$6.24$6.49$6.74
Upside / Downside-43.95%-41.72%-39.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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