Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.,Ltd (603317.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.49 - $106.97$33.92
Multi-Stage$11.71 - $12.76$12.22
Blended Fair Value$23.07
Current Price$11.56
Upside99.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.62%24.46%0.400.230.040.150.110.080.060.190.030.03
YoY Growth--74.46%543.01%-76.07%36.24%40.00%38.89%-71.08%575.78%5.39%-39.12%
Dividend Yield--2.81%1.71%0.20%1.16%0.38%0.38%0.70%2.43%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)584.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)581.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.8873.0543.83
Cash Retained (M)2.802.802.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.88-73.05-43.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)-114.08-70.25-41.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,062.231,062.231,062.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.11-0.07-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.11-0.07-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.49$33.92$106.97
Upside / Downside59.94%193.43%825.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)584.41622.39662.85705.93751.82800.69824.71
Payout Ratio99.52%97.62%95.71%93.81%91.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)581.60607.56634.43662.22690.95720.62762.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.01%8.01%8.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)557.21562.49567.78
Year 2 PV (M)533.64543.80554.07
Year 3 PV (M)510.86525.53540.47
Year 4 PV (M)488.86507.66526.99
Year 5 PV (M)467.60490.18513.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,877.5110,354.6010,849.94
Equity Value (M)12,435.6812,984.2613,552.88
Shares Outstanding (M)1,062.231,062.231,062.23
Fair Value$11.71$12.22$12.76
Upside / Downside1.27%5.74%10.37%

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