Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Publishing & Media Co., Ltd. (601921.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.31 - $6.29$5.27
Multi-Stage$7.59 - $8.33$7.95
Blended Fair Value$6.61
Current Price$8.25
Upside-19.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-6.51%0.00%0.390.350.330.100.190.550.270.440.000.00
YoY Growth--11.19%7.09%241.54%-49.75%-65.05%104.50%-39.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.00%3.95%3.95%1.16%1.29%3.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,282.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)666.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)615.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)256.51160.3296.19
Cash Retained (M)615.89615.89615.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-256.51-160.32-96.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)359.38455.57519.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,220.682,220.682,220.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.53
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.31$5.27$6.29
Upside / Downside-47.72%-36.16%-23.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,282.561,269.731,257.031,244.461,232.021,219.701,256.29
Payout Ratio51.98%59.58%67.19%74.79%82.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)666.67756.55844.57930.761,015.131,097.731,162.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.50%8.50%8.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)690.25697.29704.33
Year 2 PV (M)703.02717.44732.01
Year 3 PV (M)706.86728.72751.03
Year 4 PV (M)703.37732.53762.57
Year 5 PV (M)693.94730.08767.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,359.5914,055.2514,779.60
Equity Value (M)16,857.0417,661.3118,497.25
Shares Outstanding (M)2,220.682,220.682,220.68
Fair Value$7.59$7.95$8.33
Upside / Downside-7.99%-3.60%0.96%

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