Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.,Ltd (600449.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.09 - $4.19$3.65
Multi-Stage$5.54 - $6.09$5.81
Blended Fair Value$4.73
Current Price$13.17
Upside-64.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.76%-3.61%0.320.450.620.700.560.380.320.230.240.11
YoY Growth---29.35%-27.65%-11.88%25.20%46.41%18.84%38.46%-3.73%123.92%-76.36%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.71%3.80%4.99%3.71%3.04%3.29%2.02%1.88%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)292.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.4036.5021.90
Cash Retained (M)176.28176.28176.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.40-36.50-21.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.87139.77154.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.90464.90464.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate-5.61%-4.61%-3.61%
Fair Value$3.09$3.65$4.19
Upside / Downside-76.55%-72.28%-68.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)292.02278.56265.73253.48241.80230.66237.58
Payout Ratio39.64%49.71%59.78%69.85%79.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.74138.47158.85177.07193.27207.59219.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate-5.61%-4.61%-3.61%
Year 1 PV (M)124.84126.16127.49
Year 2 PV (M)129.13131.88134.66
Year 3 PV (M)129.77133.93138.19
Year 4 PV (M)127.70133.20138.87
Year 5 PV (M)123.67130.36137.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,938.662,043.552,152.93
Equity Value (M)2,573.762,699.082,829.47
Shares Outstanding (M)464.90464.90464.90
Fair Value$5.54$5.81$6.09
Upside / Downside-57.96%-55.92%-53.79%

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