Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Meheco Group Co., Ltd. (600056.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.75 - $2.38$2.07
Multi-Stage$4.37 - $4.81$4.59
Blended Fair Value$3.33
Current Price$11.15
Upside-70.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.62%-6.11%0.230.150.420.260.200.310.260.220.120.11
YoY Growth--57.19%-64.49%58.07%33.56%-36.46%18.94%16.13%81.97%11.68%-74.67%
Dividend Yield--2.22%1.33%3.03%1.01%1.99%2.88%2.28%1.32%0.73%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)543.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)387.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.6267.8940.73
Cash Retained (M)155.54155.54155.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.62-67.89-40.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.9287.65114.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,496.051,496.051,496.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate-7.62%-6.62%-5.62%
Fair Value$1.75$2.07$2.38
Upside / Downside-84.30%-81.43%-78.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)543.08507.12473.53442.17412.89385.54397.11
Payout Ratio71.36%75.09%78.82%82.54%86.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)387.54380.78373.22364.98356.20346.99367.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate-7.62%-6.62%-5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)349.77353.55357.34
Year 2 PV (M)314.89321.75328.68
Year 3 PV (M)282.86292.15301.64
Year 4 PV (M)253.57264.73276.26
Year 5 PV (M)226.89239.44252.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,108.255,390.795,685.69
Equity Value (M)6,536.236,862.417,202.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,496.051,496.051,496.05
Fair Value$4.37$4.59$4.81
Upside / Downside-60.82%-58.86%-56.82%

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