Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Dutch Lady Milk Industries Berhad (3026.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.46 - $16.25$13.82
Multi-Stage$17.47 - $19.17$18.30
Blended Fair Value$16.06
Current Price$27.12
Upside-40.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-12.94%0.00%0.500.500.500.500.801.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-37.50%-20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.73%1.54%1.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2413.908.34
Cash Retained (M)79.2179.2179.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.24-13.90-8.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.9765.3170.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.0064.0064.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.021.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.021.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.46$13.82$16.25
Upside / Downside-57.76%-49.04%-40.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.21110.10109.00107.91106.83105.76108.94
Payout Ratio28.77%41.02%53.26%65.51%77.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.0045.1658.0670.6983.0795.19100.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)40.6841.1041.51
Year 2 PV (M)47.1148.0849.05
Year 3 PV (M)51.6753.2754.90
Year 4 PV (M)54.6956.9659.30
Year 5 PV (M)56.4659.4062.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)867.25912.41959.44
Equity Value (M)1,117.871,171.211,226.65
Shares Outstanding (M)64.0064.0064.00
Fair Value$17.47$18.30$19.17
Upside / Downside-35.59%-32.52%-29.33%

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