Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hongrun Construction Group Co., Ltd. (002062.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.37 - $1.91$1.64
Multi-Stage$2.90 - $3.19$3.04
Blended Fair Value$2.34
Current Price$10.00
Upside-76.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.11%21.53%0.170.090.090.110.050.050.050.210.070.07
YoY Growth--79.35%0.00%-16.67%140.00%0.00%0.00%-77.82%215.59%0.00%180.00%
Dividend Yield--2.99%2.25%1.75%2.17%1.08%1.02%1.04%4.70%1.05%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)276.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)103.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.3834.6120.77
Cash Retained (M)103.05103.05103.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.38-34.61-20.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.6768.4482.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,172.871,172.871,172.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate-4.93%-3.93%-2.93%
Fair Value$1.37$1.64$1.91
Upside / Downside-86.32%-83.63%-80.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)276.91266.03255.58245.54235.89226.62233.42
Payout Ratio62.78%68.23%73.67%79.11%84.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173.86181.51188.29194.25199.46203.96215.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate-4.93%-3.93%-2.93%
Year 1 PV (M)166.01167.76169.50
Year 2 PV (M)157.51160.84164.20
Year 3 PV (M)148.62153.36158.20
Year 4 PV (M)139.58145.54151.70
Year 5 PV (M)130.54137.55144.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,658.942,801.752,950.63
Equity Value (M)3,401.203,566.803,739.10
Shares Outstanding (M)1,172.871,172.871,172.87
Fair Value$2.90$3.04$3.19
Upside / Downside-71.00%-69.59%-68.12%

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