Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna (PKN.WA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$161.58 - $324.98$225.01
Multi-Stage$124.90 - $136.14$130.42
Blended Fair Value$177.71
Current Price$82.10
Upside116.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.26%22.82%4.155.501.291.290.371.291.111.110.740.61
YoY Growth---24.53%326.52%0.00%249.77%-71.50%17.07%0.00%50.06%21.10%14.42%
Dividend Yield--6.10%8.31%2.21%1.70%0.58%2.32%1.11%1.31%0.74%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,732.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,819.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,913.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,146.401,341.50804.90
Cash Retained (M)5,913.005,913.005,913.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,146.40-1,341.50-804.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,766.604,571.505,108.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,160.891,160.891,160.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.243.944.40
LTM Dividend per Share4.154.154.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.243.944.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.408.098.55
WACC / Discount Rate10.33%10.33%10.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$161.58$225.01$324.98
Upside / Downside96.81%174.06%295.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,732.0011,429.5812,172.5012,963.7213,806.3614,703.7715,144.88
Payout Ratio44.90%53.92%62.94%71.96%80.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,819.006,163.117,661.609,328.8511,180.4713,233.3914,009.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.33%10.33%10.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,533.685,586.145,638.59
Year 2 PV (M)6,176.586,294.236,412.98
Year 3 PV (M)6,752.606,946.447,143.96
Year 4 PV (M)7,266.377,545.817,833.24
Year 5 PV (M)7,722.238,095.228,482.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)111,545.35116,933.03122,526.91
Equity Value (M)144,996.81151,400.87158,038.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,160.891,160.891,160.89
Fair Value$124.90$130.42$136.14
Upside / Downside52.13%58.85%65.82%

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