Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (603323.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$177.82 - $209.50$196.33
Multi-Stage$37.68 - $41.28$39.44
Blended Fair Value$117.89
Current Price$4.97
Upside2,271.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.05%9.43%0.320.280.290.290.150.090.120.030.050.06
YoY Growth--15.18%-3.93%0.26%91.14%75.44%-28.04%246.27%-32.84%-19.57%-50.82%
Dividend Yield--6.63%6.60%6.77%5.95%3.46%2.13%2.05%0.58%0.48%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,026.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)493.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,532.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)405.31253.32151.99
Cash Retained (M)1,532.811,532.811,532.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-405.31-253.32-151.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,127.501,279.491,380.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,923.771,923.771,923.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$177.82$196.33$209.50
Upside / Downside3,477.81%3,850.32%4,115.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,026.542,158.262,298.552,447.952,607.072,776.532,859.83
Payout Ratio24.36%37.49%50.62%63.75%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)493.73809.151,163.481,560.462,004.132,498.882,645.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)757.10764.28771.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,018.631,038.031,057.61
Year 3 PV (M)1,278.311,315.011,352.40
Year 4 PV (M)1,536.161,595.241,656.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,792.201,878.761,968.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,096.4769,288.9672,603.63
Equity Value (M)72,478.8875,880.2879,409.74
Shares Outstanding (M)1,923.771,923.771,923.77
Fair Value$37.68$39.44$41.28
Upside / Downside658.06%693.63%730.55%

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