Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sichuan Expressway Company Limited (601107.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.53 - $63.78$59.77
Multi-Stage$10.12 - $11.06$10.58
Blended Fair Value$35.18
Current Price$5.56
Upside532.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.95%8.70%0.410.330.330.200.210.220.230.230.210.21
YoY Growth--26.10%0.80%58.90%-3.31%-1.63%-5.06%-0.87%10.62%-2.57%18.22%
Dividend Yield--7.85%6.31%8.57%4.51%6.46%6.32%5.05%5.79%3.84%4.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,636.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,635.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)327.22204.51122.71
Cash Retained (M)0.760.760.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-327.22-204.51-122.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)-326.46-203.76-121.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,101.305,101.305,101.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.04-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.04-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.53$59.77$63.78
Upside / Downside449.07%975.08%1,047.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,636.101,742.441,855.701,976.322,104.782,241.592,308.84
Payout Ratio99.95%97.96%95.97%93.98%91.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,635.341,706.951,780.961,857.381,936.212,017.432,135.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,589.411,604.481,619.54
Year 2 PV (M)1,544.131,573.551,603.23
Year 3 PV (M)1,499.501,542.551,586.41
Year 4 PV (M)1,455.511,511.481,569.05
Year 5 PV (M)1,412.141,480.351,551.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,140.6346,272.6448,486.25
Equity Value (M)51,641.3353,985.0456,415.65
Shares Outstanding (M)5,101.305,101.305,101.30
Fair Value$10.12$10.58$11.06
Upside / Downside82.07%90.33%98.90%

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