Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd (600970.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$192.94 - $227.31$213.03
Multi-Stage$146.28 - $160.52$153.27
Blended Fair Value$183.15
Current Price$8.93
Upside1,950.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.29%25.82%0.590.440.520.320.500.230.190.100.120.06
YoY Growth--33.85%-15.42%60.17%-35.85%116.57%24.77%83.05%-15.06%87.22%8.66%
Dividend Yield--6.11%3.74%4.63%3.37%5.35%3.85%2.29%1.14%1.12%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,997.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,325.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,671.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)599.41374.63224.78
Cash Retained (M)1,671.711,671.711,671.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-599.41-374.63-224.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,072.291,297.071,446.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,622.112,622.112,622.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.490.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.490.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$192.94$213.03$227.31
Upside / Downside2,060.56%2,285.51%2,445.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,997.063,191.873,399.343,620.303,855.624,106.234,229.42
Payout Ratio44.22%53.38%62.53%71.69%80.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,325.351,703.742,125.712,595.343,117.053,695.613,912.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,685.561,701.541,717.52
Year 2 PV (M)2,080.602,120.232,160.24
Year 3 PV (M)2,513.172,585.322,658.83
Year 4 PV (M)2,986.163,101.003,219.12
Year 5 PV (M)3,502.663,671.843,847.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)370,795.21388,704.76407,299.75
Equity Value (M)383,563.36401,884.68420,902.94
Shares Outstanding (M)2,622.112,622.112,622.11
Fair Value$146.28$153.27$160.52
Upside / Downside1,538.08%1,616.32%1,697.54%

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