Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (600600.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.52 - $98.73$66.06
Multi-Stage$34.68 - $37.84$36.23
Blended Fair Value$51.15
Current Price$65.92
Upside-22.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.11%15.88%1.471.330.810.560.400.350.320.260.290.33
YoY Growth--10.68%63.97%44.84%40.10%13.49%11.11%23.65%-11.67%-13.04%-0.99%
Dividend Yield--1.93%1.60%0.67%0.71%0.47%0.77%0.69%0.63%0.88%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,629.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,557.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,071.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)925.89578.68347.21
Cash Retained (M)3,071.783,071.783,071.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-925.89-578.68-347.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,145.892,493.102,724.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.331.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.331.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.52$66.06$98.73
Upside / Downside-29.42%0.22%49.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,629.454,930.365,250.835,592.145,955.636,342.746,533.03
Payout Ratio33.65%44.92%56.19%67.46%78.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,557.672,214.602,950.353,772.394,688.835,708.476,043.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,994.442,013.342,032.25
Year 2 PV (M)2,392.902,438.482,484.49
Year 3 PV (M)2,755.462,834.552,915.15
Year 4 PV (M)3,084.373,202.993,325.00
Year 5 PV (M)3,381.803,545.143,714.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,171.6553,643.2656,209.46
Equity Value (M)64,780.6167,677.7670,681.08
Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
Fair Value$34.68$36.23$37.84
Upside / Downside-47.39%-45.04%-42.60%

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