Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (600585.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.34 - $9.85$8.63
Multi-Stage$21.88 - $24.23$23.03
Blended Fair Value$15.83
Current Price$23.22
Upside-31.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.85%7.14%1.151.512.432.162.041.731.340.640.630.85
YoY Growth---24.14%-37.82%12.26%6.00%18.34%29.20%107.49%1.68%-25.48%47.73%
Dividend Yield--4.72%6.74%8.60%5.48%3.99%3.13%3.36%2.00%3.05%5.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,802.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,562.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,239.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,760.431,100.27660.16
Cash Retained (M)4,239.824,239.824,239.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,760.43-1,100.27-660.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,479.393,139.563,579.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,189.185,189.185,189.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.610.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.610.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.481.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-9.85%-8.85%-7.85%
Fair Value$7.34$8.63$9.85
Upside / Downside-68.41%-62.84%-57.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,802.158,022.807,312.466,665.006,074.885,537.005,703.11
Payout Ratio51.83%59.47%67.10%74.73%82.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,562.334,770.814,906.604,980.945,003.664,983.305,275.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-9.85%-8.85%-7.85%
Year 1 PV (M)4,417.114,466.114,515.11
Year 2 PV (M)4,206.044,299.874,394.74
Year 3 PV (M)3,953.224,086.254,222.22
Year 4 PV (M)3,676.833,842.724,014.15
Year 5 PV (M)3,390.393,582.663,783.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)93,896.4999,221.35104,785.10
Equity Value (M)113,540.08119,498.96125,714.88
Shares Outstanding (M)5,189.185,189.185,189.18
Fair Value$21.88$23.03$24.23
Upside / Downside-5.77%-0.82%4.33%

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