Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Jingneng Power Co., Ltd. (600578.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.69 - $70.69$27.47
Multi-Stage$13.93 - $15.27$14.59
Blended Fair Value$21.03
Current Price$4.13
Upside409.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.16%0.49%0.320.370.250.360.350.330.260.310.310.29
YoY Growth---11.65%49.20%-30.64%1.84%6.55%24.71%-15.71%0.70%4.89%-4.67%
Dividend Yield--9.07%10.97%7.87%12.69%7.98%11.95%7.68%8.98%6.95%6.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,477.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,154.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,322.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)695.54434.71260.83
Cash Retained (M)2,322.942,322.942,322.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-695.54-434.71-260.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,627.391,888.222,062.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,792.756,792.756,792.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.47%6.47%6.47%
Growth Rate3.76%4.76%5.76%
Fair Value$15.69$27.47$70.69
Upside / Downside279.93%565.11%1,611.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,477.713,643.373,816.923,998.734,189.214,388.764,520.42
Payout Ratio33.20%44.56%55.92%67.28%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,154.771,623.632,134.532,690.433,294.443,949.884,181.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.47%6.47%6.47%
Growth Rate3.76%4.76%5.76%
Year 1 PV (M)1,510.381,524.941,539.49
Year 2 PV (M)1,847.151,882.921,919.04
Year 3 PV (M)2,165.812,229.032,293.47
Year 4 PV (M)2,467.052,563.542,662.83
Year 5 PV (M)2,751.572,886.743,027.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,896.5688,017.9292,299.68
Equity Value (M)94,638.5299,105.09103,741.69
Shares Outstanding (M)6,792.756,792.756,792.75
Fair Value$13.93$14.59$15.27
Upside / Downside237.34%253.26%269.79%

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