Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,834.35 - $14,022.56$11,197.73
Multi-Stage$10,390.67 - $11,384.25$10,878.15
Blended Fair Value$11,037.94
Current Price$7,859.00
Upside40.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.74%2.82%125.33104.48104.30105.10104.56104.30103.80102.99102.6991.54
YoY Growth--19.96%0.17%-0.76%0.52%0.24%0.48%0.79%0.30%12.17%-3.54%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.65%2.48%2.48%2.23%2.47%2.38%1.93%2.04%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)449,106.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70,975.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)378,131.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89,821.2056,138.2533,682.95
Cash Retained (M)378,131.00378,131.00378,131.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-89,821.20-56,138.25-33,682.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)288,309.80321,992.75344,448.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)532.68532.68532.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share541.24604.47646.63
LTM Dividend per Share133.24133.24133.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share541.24604.47646.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend674.48737.71779.87
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Fair Value$8,834.35$11,197.73$14,022.56
Upside / Downside12.41%42.48%78.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)449,106.00461,830.50474,915.53488,371.29502,208.30516,437.34531,930.46
Payout Ratio15.80%30.64%45.48%60.32%75.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70,975.00141,518.24216,001.89294,592.63377,463.39464,793.61492,035.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)127,857.48129,113.04130,368.60
Year 2 PV (M)176,313.29179,793.07183,306.86
Year 3 PV (M)217,251.67223,714.94230,305.14
Year 4 PV (M)251,495.27261,520.44271,842.39
Year 5 PV (M)279,787.86293,797.87308,363.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,482,233.874,706,675.854,940,020.04
Equity Value (M)5,534,939.445,794,615.226,064,206.60
Shares Outstanding (M)532.68532.68532.68
Fair Value$10,390.67$10,878.15$11,384.25
Upside / Downside32.21%38.42%44.86%

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