Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

CECEP Environmental Protection Equipment Co.,Ltd. (300140.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.89 - $52.89$49.57
Multi-Stage$33.48 - $36.73$35.07
Blended Fair Value$42.32
Current Price$6.05
Upside599.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS55.61%51.30%0.250.170.180.020.030.030.010.010.000.01
YoY Growth--43.89%-1.87%889.72%-47.90%25.34%387.13%-40.59%138.09%-60.02%150.11%
Dividend Yield--4.23%2.52%2.34%0.27%0.50%0.24%0.05%0.06%0.02%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)824.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)567.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)256.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)164.86103.0461.82
Cash Retained (M)256.85256.85256.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-164.86-103.04-61.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.99153.81195.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,099.493,099.493,099.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate0.55%0.55%0.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.89$49.57$52.89
Upside / Downside642.03%719.28%774.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)824.31877.89934.96995.731,060.451,129.381,163.26
Payout Ratio68.84%73.07%77.30%81.54%85.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)567.46641.50722.76811.88909.531,016.441,076.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.55%0.55%0.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)631.98637.97643.96
Year 2 PV (M)701.47714.83728.32
Year 3 PV (M)776.27798.55821.26
Year 4 PV (M)856.73889.67923.56
Year 5 PV (M)943.22988.781,036.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)99,850.76104,673.58109,680.99
Equity Value (M)103,760.42108,703.39113,834.18
Shares Outstanding (M)3,099.493,099.493,099.49
Fair Value$33.48$35.07$36.73
Upside / Downside453.33%479.69%507.05%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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