Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Power International Development Limited (2380.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.05 - $127.51$119.50
Multi-Stage$20.33 - $22.24$21.27
Blended Fair Value$70.38
Current Price$2.73
Upside2,478.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.12%7.25%0.170.140.060.110.100.090.070.090.140.10
YoY Growth--16.90%158.63%-51.38%11.70%17.85%32.93%-30.38%-31.66%39.98%17.49%
Dividend Yield--5.67%5.51%1.92%2.68%7.34%5.86%4.21%5.42%5.87%2.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,931.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,494.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,436.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,586.26991.41594.85
Cash Retained (M)3,436.863,436.863,436.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,586.26-991.41-594.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,850.602,445.452,842.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,370.1512,370.1512,370.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$69.05$119.50$127.51
Upside / Downside2,429.38%4,277.18%4,570.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,931.298,446.838,995.879,580.6010,203.3410,866.5611,192.56
Payout Ratio56.67%63.33%70.00%76.67%83.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,494.435,349.696,297.137,345.148,502.799,779.9010,353.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,986.145,033.405,080.67
Year 2 PV (M)5,470.355,574.555,679.73
Year 3 PV (M)5,947.166,117.886,291.83
Year 4 PV (M)6,416.636,663.396,917.21
Year 5 PV (M)6,878.857,211.107,556.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)221,764.91232,476.24243,597.51
Equity Value (M)251,464.04263,076.56275,123.02
Shares Outstanding (M)12,370.1512,370.1512,370.15
Fair Value$20.33$21.27$22.24
Upside / Downside644.63%679.01%714.68%

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