Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hankook Shell Oil Co.,Ltd. (002960.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,747,392.27 - $6,230,670.24$5,839,050.49
Multi-Stage$958,671.26 - $1,047,639.16$1,002,344.29
Blended Fair Value$3,420,697.39
Current Price$414,000.00
Upside726.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.69%3.05%26,999.7117,999.8118,999.8013,999.8515,999.8316,999.8218,999.8016,999.8219,999.7818,999.80
YoY Growth--50.00%-5.26%35.71%-12.50%-5.88%-10.53%11.76%-15.00%5.26%-5.00%
Dividend Yield--8.19%7.04%8.26%5.52%6.35%6.91%5.90%5.01%5.03%3.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40,728.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35,100.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,628.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,145.785,091.113,054.67
Cash Retained (M)5,628.895,628.895,628.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,145.78-5,091.11-3,054.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,516.89537.782,574.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.301.301.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1,936.05413.671,980.15
LTM Dividend per Share26,999.7126,999.7126,999.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1,936.05413.671,980.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend25,063.6627,413.3828,979.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,747,392.27$5,839,050.49$6,230,670.24
Upside / Downside563.62%1,310.40%1,404.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40,728.8943,376.2746,195.7349,198.4552,396.3555,802.1157,476.18
Payout Ratio86.18%86.94%87.71%88.47%89.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35,100.0037,712.9340,517.2443,526.7846,756.3750,221.9053,165.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)35,091.0735,423.6935,756.31
Year 2 PV (M)35,079.4435,747.6136,422.08
Year 3 PV (M)35,065.1536,071.7537,097.42
Year 4 PV (M)35,048.2536,396.1137,782.48
Year 5 PV (M)35,028.8036,720.7038,477.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,070,973.341,122,701.751,176,409.93
Equity Value (M)1,246,286.061,303,061.611,361,945.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1.301.301.30
Fair Value$958,671.26$1,002,344.29$1,047,639.16
Upside / Downside131.56%142.11%153.05%

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